The 2022 World Cup is now just around the corner, with the 22nd edition of the world’s biggest sporting competition set to kick off in Qatar on the 21st of November.
Australia defied the odds to qualify for the event, beating the more highly fancied Peruvian outfit on the 13th of June to book their spot in a fifth consecutive World Cup. Following qualification, the Socceroos were placed into Group D alongside France, Denmark and Tunisia, each of whom they will play once between the 22nd and the 30th of November.
As the 39th ranked side in the world Australia is not expected to advance too far into the tournament, but as they demonstrated during their thrilling run past the Group Stage in 2006 which could easily have continued for a lot longer, expectations don’t always match up with reality.
This time around, are the Socceroos a chance of once again surpassing the modest predictions which surround their World Cup prospects? According to the betting odds, on which many base their assumptions, even advancing past the Group Stage is unlikely, though it’s certainly not seen as out of the question.
These betting odds can vary a little between bookmakers, but mybettingaustralia.com has Bet365 and Unibet as a couple with odds consistently among the best. Of those sites, Bet365 has the Socceroos as a $3.25 chance to advance to the Round of 16, while fellow betting giant Unibet views them as even less likely to advance.
So why the low expectations? And are the bookmakers likely to be proven correct? Let’s take a deeper dive into the odds surrounding the Aussies chances to make it to each stage of the tournament.
To Advance Past the Group Stage ($3.25 – Bet365)
Just once in history have the Socceroos managed to make it out of the Group Stage at the FIFA World Cup – at the aforementioned 2006 event, when a win against Japan and a draw against Croatia saw them finish second in Group F behind only Brazil. The odds are against them repeating that achievement, but it’s certainly not out of the realms of possibility.
Alongside Australia in Group D at this year’s event will be France, Denmark and Tunisia, all of whom are ranked above the Socceroos in the Official FIFA Men’s World Rankings. France is the highest rated, with the reigning World Cup winners sitting in fourth place behind only Brazil, Belgium and Argentina.
Denmark aren’t too far behind, ranked tenth in the world – a similar position to where they have been over the past few years but significantly higher than the 51st they found themselves as recently as 2017. And finally, Tunisia are back in 30th, making them comfortably the closest ranked team to Australia in the group.
It’s not an easy group, and the Socceroos will have their work cut out for them against Denmark and in particular France.
Tunisia, however, are certainly a side which Australia is capable of beating – indeed, they would be viewed by most as inferior to Peru, who as mentioned the Socceroos beat to advance into the World Cup. And as the 2006 campaign showed, if the Aussies can snatch a draw against either France or Denmark, that record of 1-1-1 could potentially be enough to advance to the Round of 16. If they can snatch two wins, of course, that will virtually assure them of qualification, but that will require at least one significant upset.
To Advance to the Quarterfinals ($11 – Bet365)
Clearly even making it out of Group D will be a big achievement for the Socceroos, but if they do manage to do so they will evidently have their sights set on bigger things. At $11 and having never before made it to the quarterfinal stage of a World Cup, they would need to defy both the odds and history to get there, but stranger things have certainly happened.
If Australia does advance out of Group D, they will play one of the top two sides from Group C. Finishing atop their group will see them play the second ranked team from Group D, while if they finish second they will play the top ranked team from that group, which will be one of Argentina, Mexico, Poland and Saudi Arabia.
Argentina is the comfortable favourite to win that group, while Mexico and Poland are likely to be battling for second spot. Saudi Arabia is comfortably the least likely to advance.
Of course, if Australia does manage to make it past the Group Stage, it’s more likely that they’ll finish second in their group – it’s tough to see them finishing ahead of both France and Denmark. If that is the case, they will play the top ranked side from Group C, which as mentioned is most likely to be Argentina, who are the third ranked side in the world and one of the favourites to win the event.
It will obviously be an extremely difficult task for the Socceroos to beat them, but if they can manage to finish atop Group D, or either Mexico or Poland finishes first in Group C, the Aussies’ chances will be much higher. Mexico is ranked 12th in the world but is a long way back in estimations in terms of World Cup winners, while Poland is 26th. Both of them would enter a game against the Socceroos as favourites, but the result would be far from a fait accompli.
To Advance to the Semi-Finals ($29 – Bet365)
If the Socceroos make it to the quarterfinals, excitement will be beginning to seriously build down under, but to keep the run going they’ll almost certainly have to beat a high-quality team.
In the event that the Aussies finish second in Group D and then win their Round of 16 match, they’ll be playing the winner of the game between the Group A Winner, and the Group B Runner-Up. That could be a host of teams, but the Netherlands are the comfortable favourite to win Group A, and if they do so will then be favourite to beat most likely the USA or Wales in the Round of 16.
If that eventuates, it will be a very tough ask for the Socceroos; the Netherlands are eighth ranked side in the world, and the equal seventh favourite to win the event
If the Socceroos manage to win Group D and then win their Round of 16, they’ll be playing the winner of the game between the Group B Winner, and the Group A Runner-Up. More than likely, this team will be England. The fifth-ranked side in the world, they are the short-priced favourite to win their group, and will be favourites against whoever they face in the Round of 16, too. As they will be if they face the Netherlands, the Socceroos will be significant outsiders if they end up in a clash against the English.
To Advance to the Final ($81 – Bet365)
Now to the really outside prospects – the Socceroos are paying a whopping $81 to make it all the way to the FIFA World Cup Final, and that’s little surprise when you consider who they would have to beat to do so. After advancing from the Group Stage and then potentially having to defeat Argentina and either England or the Netherlands, the Aussies would then need to beat most likely another one of the best teams in the world in the semi-finals.
This could be a host of different teams; if the Socceroos finish second in Group D, their most likely semi-final opponents should they get that far would be Brazil (ranked number one in the world), Spain (ranked number six). If they finish top of Group D, their most likely semi-final opponents would be Belgium (ranked second in the world) or Portugal (ranked ninth). Clearly, the Socceroos would be significant underdogs to win these games.
To Win the World Cup ($251)
It’s a fanciful prospect, but we’ve come this far, so why not continue the dream? At $251 the Socceroos are rank outsiders to make the final, let alone win it, and if they get it there are plenty of teams they could be facing. One thing is for sure though; that team would be a mighty good one playing some extremely good football.
Betting on the World Cup is a means by which many get involved with the biggest sporting tournament in the world, from the most ardent of football fans to the most casual of followers. The odds provide a generally fairly accurate picture of what is expected to happen throughout the event, and as we’ve demonstrated above can help to get a gauge of what is expected from the Socceroos in 2022.
That’s not all that’s on offer from the biggest bookmakers though; you can find odds on a wide range of markets, including the performance of all teams at the event, as well as individual player markets like Golden Ball and Golden Boot.
As the above odds show, qualifying deep into the tournament is unlikely, but it’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility for the Aussies to make it past the Group Stage for just the second time in their history. It all kicks off late in November, and regardless of how the Socceroos fare, will make for compelling viewing.
